2020智能交通行業發展現狀及前景分析

        在物聯網、人(ren)工智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)等(deng)新技術興(xing)起之際，智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)交通(tong)行業隨(sui)之踏入市(shi)場需求(qiu)快速擴(kuo)容階(jie)段，并因良好的(de)市(shi)場效(xiao)益，被地方政府當作是新的(de)經濟(ji)增長點。智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)交通(tong)逐漸(jian)從概念走向現(xian)實，也(ye)意味著其前(qian)景日益明(ming)朗，發展形勢大好。

在物(wu)聯網、人工智能(neng)等新(xin)技術(shu)興(xing)起之(zhi)際，智能(neng)交通(tong)行業(ye)隨(sui)之(zhi)踏入市(shi)場需求快速擴容階(jie)段(duan)，并因(yin)良好(hao)(hao)的市(shi)場效益，被地方政府當作是新(xin)的經(jing)濟增(zeng)長點。智能(neng)交通(tong)逐漸(jian)從概念走向現實，也意味著(zhu)其前景(jing)日益明朗，發展形勢大好(hao)(hao)。近年來，隨(sui)著(zhu)工業(ye)4.0和中國(guo)制(zhi)造2025戰略的(de)(de)推進(jin)，制(zhi)造業(ye)智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)化轉型升級進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)地(di)如火如荼，智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)領域也(ye)正進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)著一(yi)(yi)場(chang)深刻的(de)(de)變革。智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)的(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)還(huan)處(chu)于不斷完善當(dang)(dang)中，未(wei)來(lai)(lai)將發(fa)掘更多物聯網(wang)的(de)(de)應用(yong)潛能(neng)(neng)(neng)，以助力智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)慧城(cheng)市建設(she)。城(cheng)市智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)系統在基礎設(she)施和集成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)應用(yong)上面已(yi)經取(qu)得了顯著的(de)(de)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)效，首先(xian)智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)已(yi)經逐(zhu)步完善，在很(hen)多國(guo)家級大(da)型活動(dong)和峰會(hui)當(dang)(dang)中都凸顯了智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)系統起(qi)到(dao)的(de)(de)作用(yong)，同時在日常我們(men)百姓出行(xing)(xing)(xing)、車(che)路協(xie)同等(deng)方面在城(cheng)市的(de)(de)快速(su)發(fa)展(zhan)過(guo)程(cheng)當(dang)(dang)中表現出一(yi)(yi)定(ding)的(de)(de)效果。智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)已(yi)經成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)為了城(cheng)市建設(she)不可分割的(de)(de)重要(yao)組成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)部分。在相關領域，無論是(shi)政(zheng)府的(de)(de)政(zheng)策扶持還(huan)是(shi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)本身的(de)(de)良性發(fa)展(zhan)，都為智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)的(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)創(chuang)造了一(yi)(yi)個良好的(de)(de)環境，智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)市場(chang)大(da)有(you)可為。隨著PPP項目的(de)(de)大(da)力推行(xing)(xing)(xing)，智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)項目的(de)(de)運作從以前的(de)(de)單兵作戰，向各領先(xian)技術(shu)企業(ye)各資(zi)本投資(zi)商聯合(he)集群作戰方向發(fa)展(zhan)，雖然項目越(yue)(yue)(yue)做(zuo)越(yue)(yue)(yue)大(da)，但反而投資(zi)價值越(yue)(yue)(yue)來(lai)(lai)越(yue)(yue)(yue)高，系統集成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)度越(yue)(yue)(yue)來(lai)(lai)越(yue)(yue)(yue)高，技術(shu)壁壘越(yue)(yue)(yue)來(lai)(lai)越(yue)(yue)(yue)少，這無疑為智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)的(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)帶來(lai)(lai)了更多可能(neng)(neng)(neng)。

據中研(yan)普華(hua)研(yan)究報(bao)告《》分析(xi)

近年來，中國(guo)交(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)智(zhi)能(neng)化水(shui)平正持續提升，互聯網與交(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)融合(he)的(de)步(bu)伐也在加快，智(zhi)能(neng)交(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)已經成為(wei)中國(guo)智(zhi)慧城市建設需要突破的(de)重要領域。目前，中國(guo)智(zhi)能(neng)交(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)主要分(fen)為(wei)三個(ge)領域：城市智(zhi)能(neng)交(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)及高(gao)速(su)公路智(zhi)能(neng)交(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)和(he)其他(ta)領域智(zhi)能(neng)交(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)。2018年(nian)(nian)中國(guo)(guo)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)市場規模(mo)達1340.6億元，同比(bi)增(zeng)長14.87%。2019年(nian)(nian)中國(guo)(guo)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)市場規模(mo)約(yue)1520.2億元。大(da)幅增(zeng)強(qiang)綜(zong)(zong)合(he)(he)交通(tong)(tong)運(yun)輸(shu)(shu)協同運(yun)行(xing)和(he)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)監管能(neng)(neng)力，全(quan)面提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)中國(guo)(guo)綜(zong)(zong)合(he)(he)交通(tong)(tong)運(yun)輸(shu)(shu)的綜(zong)(zong)合(he)(he)化(hua)、智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)化(hua)水(shui)平和(he)服務(wu)品質。到2022年(nian)(nian)，形成(cheng)新(xin)一代(dai)綜(zong)(zong)合(he)(he)交通(tong)(tong)運(yun)輸(shu)(shu)與智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)技術體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)，為實(shi)施國(guo)(guo)家(jia)重(zhong)大(da)發展戰略，提(ti)(ti)(ti)供(gong)高(gao)效、可持(chi)續的綜(zong)(zong)合(he)(he)交通(tong)(tong)運(yun)輸(shu)(shu)系(xi)(xi)統支撐(cheng)。車(che)只是(shi)(shi)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)的一個(ge)重(zhong)要(yao)元素，卻不是(shi)(shi)全(quan)部。自動駕駛汽(qi)車(che)，本(ben)質上都是(shi)(shi)要(yao)實(shi)現智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)，以提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)整(zheng)體(ti)(ti)交通(tong)(tong)效率、提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)安全(quan)系(xi)(xi)數(shu)和(he)提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)出(chu)行(xing)體(ti)(ti)驗。

在《推進(jin)“互(hu)聯(lian)網+”便捷交(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)，促進智能交(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)發展的實施方案》的推動下，中國(guo)智能交(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)將真正進入產業化發展階段，圍繞智能交(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)應用將形成(cheng)一個龐(pang)大的產業鏈，為(wei)相關行(xing)(xing)業帶來千億元市(shi)(shi)(shi)場商機(ji)。截(jie)至2019年(nian)9月(yue)，全國(guo)共有(you)252個地(di)(di)級以上城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)發行(xing)(xing)“交(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)聯(lian)合(he)”卡，主要(yao)業務領(ling)域(yu)涉及公(gong)交(jiao)(jiao)、軌(gui)道(dao)、出租車(che)、輪渡、自行(xing)(xing)車(che)、城(cheng)(cheng)際巴士(shi)等多種交(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)方式。其中，210個城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)區全部(bu)公(gong)交(jiao)(jiao)線(xian)路(lu)(lu)(lu)實現互(hu)聯(lian)互(hu)通(tong)，13個城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)軌(gui)道(dao)線(xian)路(lu)(lu)(lu)實現互(hu)聯(lian)互(hu)通(tong)，35個城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)開通(tong)了試運行(xing)(xing)公(gong)交(jiao)(jiao)線(xian)路(lu)(lu)(lu)，總計覆蓋全國(guo)2.2萬條(tiao)公(gong)交(jiao)(jiao)線(xian)路(lu)(lu)(lu)、52條(tiao)軌(gui)道(dao)線(xian)路(lu)(lu)(lu)。2019年(nian)底(di)實現260個地(di)(di)級城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)一卡通(tong)互(hu)聯(lian)互(hu)通(tong)。預計2020年(nian)基本實現全國(guo)范圍內跨(kua)市(shi)(shi)(shi)域(yu)、跨(kua)省域(yu)互(hu)聯(lian)互(hu)通(tong)。

目(mu)前國(guo)內智能交(jiao)通系統行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)逐漸(jian)從前期走向快速發展階段，但(dan)地區差異明(ming)顯。由(you)于交(jiao)通行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)信息化(hua)需求復雜，覆蓋面(mian)較(jiao)(jiao)廣，使得細分市(shi)場(chang)眾多，市(shi)場(chang)的(de)集中度較(jiao)(jiao)低，整個行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)中沒有(you)處于絕對市(shi)場(chang)領先的(de)企業(ye)。目(mu)前國(guo)內從事智能交(jiao)通行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)的(de)企業(ye)約有(you)2000多(duo)家(jia)(jia)，主(zhu)要集(ji)中(zhong)在(zai)道(dao)路(lu)監控、高(gao)速公(gong)(gong)(gong)路(lu)收費、3S(GPS、GIS、RS)和(he)(he)系統(tong)(tong)集(ji)成環(huan)節。目前國內(nei)約(yue)有500家(jia)(jia)企(qi)業在(zai)從事監控產(chan)品的(de)(de)生產(chan)和(he)(he)銷(xiao)售。高(gao)速公(gong)(gong)(gong)路(lu)收費系統(tong)(tong)是中(zhong)國非常有特色(se)的(de)(de)智(zhi)(zhi)能交通領域，國內(nei)約(yue)有200多(duo)家(jia)(jia)企(qi)業從事相關產(chan)品的(de)(de)生產(chan)，并且國內(nei)企(qi)業已取得(de)了(le)具有自主(zhu)知識產(chan)權的(de)(de)高(gao)速公(gong)(gong)(gong)路(lu)不停車收費雙界面CPU卡技術(shu)。在(zai)3S領域，國內(nei)雖(sui)然有200多(duo)家(jia)(jia)企(qi)業，一些龍頭企(qi)業在(zai)高(gao)速公(gong)(gong)(gong)路(lu)機電系統(tong)(tong)、高(gao)速公(gong)(gong)(gong)路(lu)智(zhi)(zhi)能卡、地理信息(xi)系統(tong)(tong)和(he)(he)快速公(gong)(gong)(gong)交智(zhi)(zhi)能系統(tong)(tong)領域占據了(le)重(zhong)要的(de)(de)地位。

智能(neng)交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)在未來交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)運輸行(xing)業發(fa)展(zhan)中(zhong)占有很(hen)大比例，因為(wei)在中(zhong)國普(pu)遍存(cun)在道(dao)路擁堵(du)，交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)供需(xu)不平(ping)衡(heng)，城市、人口、交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)三者之間的矛盾日(ri)益凸顯等很(hen)多(duo)難題，這些都需(xu)要大力發(fa)展(zhan)智能(neng)交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，才能(neng)使當前(qian)的城市交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)面貌得(de)(de)到改善，發(fa)展(zhan)取得(de)(de)良性循環。交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)部指出，人工智能(neng)將結(jie)合資通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)訊與5G技(ji)術(shu)擴大(da)(da)應(ying)用(yong)(yong)于(yu)自動(dong)駕駛巴士、車(che)流特(te)征(zheng)分析(xi)、交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)事件偵(zhen)測及交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)行(xing)為(wei)(wei)分析(xi)等領域。智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)管(guan)理(li)已(yi)成功導(dao)(dao)入人工智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)術(shu)于(yu)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)事故(gu)熱(re)點(dian)分析(xi)、車(che)流偵(zhen)測及行(xing)人安全警(jing)示(shi)等應(ying)用(yong)(yong)，并于(yu)游覽車(che)業(ye)者全面(mian)導(dao)(dao)入建(jian)(jian)置衛星定(ding)位設(she)備，透(tou)過動(dong)態監控(kong)管(guan)理(li)，提(ti)升(sheng)行(xing)車(che)安全。隨著技(ji)術(shu)的(de)(de)(de)發展(zhan)，智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)系統建(jian)(jian)設(she)邁入新階段(duan)。面(mian)向公眾的(de)(de)(de)智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)化(hua)服務問題得到社會重視，智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)化(hua)服務水平(ping)逐步提(ti)升(sheng)。《交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)強國建(jian)(jian)設(she)綱要》更是明(ming)確指出，大(da)(da)力發展(zhan)智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)慧交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)，推(tui)動(dong)大(da)(da)數(shu)據、互(hu)聯網、人工智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)、區塊鏈、超(chao)級計算等新技(ji)術(shu)與交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)行(xing)業(ye)深度融合。未來，智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)市(shi)場(chang)將出現大(da)(da)幅增(zeng)長的(de)(de)(de)原因(yin)是因(yin)為(wei)(wei)城市(shi)人口(kou)在(zai)持(chi)續增(zeng)長、人口(kou)增(zeng)長率也(ye)處于(yu)高(gao)位、互(hu)聯車(che)輛與智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)術(shu)在(zai)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)基礎設(she)施(shi)內的(de)(de)(de)應(ying)用(yong)(yong)率持(chi)續走高(gao)及自由貿易協(xie)定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)多(duo)。此外(wai)，政府正在(zai)推(tui)動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)城市(shi)策略等也(ye)起到了推(tui)動(dong)作用(yong)(yong)。在(zai)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)模(mo)式(shi)中，未來航(hang)空業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)幅可能(neng)(neng)是最高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)，這主要是因(yin)為(wei)(wei)乘客更喜(xi)歡快捷、舒適的(de)(de)(de)出行(xing)方式(shi)。

2020智能交通行業發展面臨挑戰

盡管中(zhong)國智(zhi)能交(jiao)通(tong)前景廣闊，屬于產業(ye)升級(ji)受益行(xing)業(ye)，未(wei)來高成(cheng)長趨(qu)勢明(ming)顯(xian)，但也面(mian)臨著不少困(kun)難和挑戰(zhan)。其一，由于物聯(lian)網技術在智(zhi)能交(jiao)通(tong)領域(yu)應用(yong)的構架尚(shang)未(wei)明(ming)確，標準體(ti)系尚(shang)不健全(quan)、不統一，規模(mo)經濟不夠，盈利(li)模(mo)式未(wei)可行(xing)，大大增(zeng)加(jia)了企業(ye)的應用(yong)成(cheng)本，不利(li)于智(zhi)能交(jiao)通(tong)的推行(xing);其二，傳(chuan)感(gan)器(qi)成本(ben)、性能和(he)壽(shou)命，在(zai)技術(shu)上(shang)與(yu)交(jiao)(jiao)通應(ying)(ying)(ying)用的(de)(de)要求還不相適應(ying)(ying)(ying)，傳(chuan)感(gan)、支撐網絡也(ye)尚未建(jian)立，地(di)址資(zi)源嚴(yan)重缺失(shi)，行業(ye)數據(ju)中心特別是部級(ji)層面(mian)的(de)(de)行業(ye)數據(ju)中心尚未真正廣泛(fan)創建(jian)，影(ying)響(xiang)智(zhi)(zhi)能交(jiao)(jiao)通深入(ru)應(ying)(ying)(ying)用;其三，關(guan)鍵技術(shu)仍受(shou)(shou)制于人，研(yan)發急需(xu)突破。目前國(guo)(guo)(guo)內70%以(yi)上(shang)的(de)(de)智(zhi)(zhi)能交(jiao)(jiao)通高端(duan)市(shi)(shi)場被國(guo)(guo)(guo)外企(qi)業(ye)搶(qiang)占，中國(guo)(guo)(guo)在(zai)RFID、傳(chuan)感(gan)器(qi)上(shang)并無(wu)主導(dao)權，仍受(shou)(shou)制于美國(guo)(guo)(guo)、歐盟，國(guo)(guo)(guo)內盈利面(mian)較小;其四，智(zhi)(zhi)能交(jiao)(jiao)通研(yan)究和(he)示范應(ying)(ying)(ying)用點分散而不成體系，技術(shu)參差(cha)不齊(qi)，市(shi)(shi)場競(jing)爭秩序也(ye)不完(wan)善，也(ye)給整個智(zhi)(zhi)能交(jiao)(jiao)通行業(ye)的(de)(de)發展帶(dai)來負(fu)面(mian)影(ying)響(xiang);其五，目前國(guo)(guo)(guo)內智(zhi)(zhi)能交(jiao)(jiao)通IT企(qi)業(ye)多數規模較小，企(qi)業(ye)穩定性相對(dui)較弱，國(guo)(guo)(guo)際廠(chang)商加緊搶(qiang)占市(shi)(shi)場，企(qi)業(ye)業(ye)績波動幅度或加大。

智(zhi)能交通作為一(yi)個新(xin)(xin)經(jing)濟增長點的戰略新(xin)(xin)興產業，具(ju)有良好的市場(chang)(chang)效益(yi)，其(qi)市場(chang)(chang)前景(jing)十分(fen)廣(guang)闊(kuo)。在安防(fang)領域的應用范圍也非常廣(guang)闊(kuo)，僅以機場(chang)(chang)為例，全國大中型機場(chang)(chang)約100余個，按照每(mei)個機場(chang)建設10-20公(gong)里圍界計(ji)算，市場(chang)容量就將在50億(yi)元以上。預計(ji)未來5年中(zhong)(zhong)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)將在200個以上的大中(zhong)(zhong)型城(cheng)市建立城(cheng)市交(jiao)通指(zhi)揮中(zhong)(zhong)心。中(zhong)(zhong)心將集公(gong)安交(jiao)通GIS綜合業務管理、視頻監(jian)控、信號控制、交(jiao)通信息檢測、GPS車輛定位、通信調度指(zhi)揮及交(jiao)通信息發(fa)布等(deng)系統于一體。